by andrew-rizzi on November 2, 2009
For the record I am a die hard Mets fan who has been rooting for the Phillies in this World Series...sort of. As we all know Yankees vs. Phils is nothing short of a nightmare for us Met fans, but it happened and there is nothing we can do about it.
My rationale for rooting against the Yankees (Trust me I wasn't cheering for Philly, I was simply rooting harder for the Evil Empire to lose) was simply that I live in New York and am surrounded by many more Yankees fans than Phillies fans. Every time Alex Rodriguez hits a homerun or Mariano Rivera completes a save without breaking a sweat, hundreds of arrogant Yankees fans go nuts at my local sports bar, making me incensed and forcing me to hold back from losing my lunch as they order Jagermeister shots in celebration. If instead I was living in the City of Brotherly Love, I would almost certainly be rooting against our NL-East rivals, given my propensity to spar with that particular fan base whenever they start in with their constant anti-New York jealousy.
Like I said though since I have found myself enveloped by pinstripes this October I have been silently hoping for Philadelphia Freedom. When Cliff Lee shut down the Yankees in game one to put Steinbrenner's squad in a hole I exhaled in relief. When Andy Pettitte got rocked early in game three I slightly pumped my fist. And when Pedro Feliz took my least favorite overrated reliever, Joba Chamberlain deep to tie game four in the 8th I actually clapped and yelled. I am not proud that I did, but I will admit it like a man. Yet now, with Philadelphia down 3-1 in the series and on the brink of elimination, I am quickly switching my allegiances and rooting against the Phils, because as a miserable Mets fan it just makes sense.
If the Yankees win tonight and clinch their 27th World Championship (I can't even type that without getting angry), at least they don't get to celebrate in front of their fans. The new Yankee Stadium and its 10 dollar beers will not get to see a title won in its first season. We won't have to watch Mike Bloomberg pretend he bleeds Yankee blue, we won't have to see Rudy Giuliani, Billy Crystal, Jack Nicholson, LeBron James, Jay-Z, and all these other celebrity fans on national television acting like they live and die over the Yankees every night like the true fans. We won't have to listen to countless stories from girls who couldn't name five Yankees in June talking about how they "were there when the Yankees won the World Series." But perhaps most importantly if the Yankees close it out down the turnpike tonight instead of in the Bronx we will get to see the losing team's fans all sulk, cry, pout, and leave Citizens Bank Park feeling the way Mets fans have to feel every single day- like failures.
No matter how much it hurts, one of these teams is going to win the World Series. The Yankees are on the precipice of a title, so why not just root for them to close it out on the road and end this disaster of a season like Old Yeller in the backyard? If the Phils somehow push it to game seven it will be impossible for me to not root for our cross-town rivals to choke it away, but for now it looks like the Yanks are on a crash course to win it all. 2009 has already been the longest baseball season of all time...do we really want it going on any longer? I won't go as far as to put on a Derek Jeter jersey or paint my face with an interlocking NY for the game tonight, but as a Mets fan I say we just hope this thing ends now, not with a bang, but a whimper.
Yes I am bitter. Yes I know my team is a joke. Yes I do wish the Mets were nearly as good as either of these teams. But the sad truth is all I have left as a baseball fan is to find out how this nightmare can end in the least frightening way possible. So with that I say for one short night and one short night only, Let's Go Yankees?
by Andrew Tworischuk on November 2, 2009
Dear Philadelphia,
Tough break this weekend guys. It’s hard to imagine the pain you all must be feeling right now – to come so close to victory only to lose it at the last minute. I know how it feels to watch my team fall apart in the regular season but to have the wheels come off on the biggest stage in the world? It must be heartbreaking to sit there and feel so hopeless as your favorite team gets absolutely embarrassed in front of millions of viewers. Hey, at least you can dry your tears on your rally towel or that Brad Lidge t-shirt you bought last year after his perfect season.
Don’t worry though, there’s still more games to be played! Your team isn’t exactly out of it yet. Your backs are up against the wall. You guys are still technically still “in” the series. As Yogi Berra said, “It ain’t over till it’s over.” Your best pitcher, Cliff Lee, goes tonight against AJ Burnett. All indications show that it should be another great game. Lee pitched wonderfully in game one so you may actually let the Yankees clinch at home. How noble of you.
It seems kind of rude of me to gloat, especially since my last article was about how Mets fans should support the Phillies in the Series. There was an article on a Phillies blog about how Mets and Red Sox fans shouldn’t root for the Phillies. That those fans who decided to root for the Fightin’s against the Yankees needed to take their support and “shove it up their [posterior].” To the faithful Phillies fans who believed that: congratulations! Your favorite team is close to being completely irrelevant again! While last season you may have been “World f-ing Champions” and had high hopes for your franchise’s continued success, this year is the season of second place. “World f-ing runners up” doesn’t have the same ring to it, does it?
While yes, I concede that you may have made it to the World Series for the second year in a row (a fantastic feat in this time of wonderful parity in baseball) your team will probably lose. The Phillies are similar to the Mets this season as neither team will probably win the World Series this year. And, as you’re well aware: second place is the first loser.
Here’s a little tip for Phillies Phans from personal experience: next time you start chanting, “Yankees suck!” please make sure your team is winning. It’s just depressing when you’re losing 4-2 and yelling about how terrible the Yankees are.
Schadenfreude. It’s a German word that perfectly sums up how I feel right now about your tragic phailure: “taking pleasure out of the misfortune of others.” I haven’t been this happy about the outcome of a playoff series since the Devils last won the Stanley Cup (something your beloved Broad Street Bullies haven’t done in more than 30 years). Watching pretty boy Cole Hamels get spanked by the potent Yankees offense was more than wonderful. Then the next day tie the game up against Joba Chamberlain then have it all come crashing down when “Cholly” actually put Brad Lidge into arguably the most important game of your season. Christmas came a month and a half early.
Just to bash it into your consciousness: Cholly relied on the same Brad Lidge who had arguably the worst season in baseball history. The one where he had a 7.21 ERA, a 5 something FIP, a K/9 that dropped by nearly 2, and a negative win probability. Oh, and one of the worst fastballs in baseball history. He did have 31 saves this season. Too bad he couldn’t get one when it actually, you know, mattered. Sure he was one strike away from getting out of the inning but he just couldn’t get it. That’s what makes his appearance (and subsequent demolition) so great.
Just a reminder: you guys were one foul tip away from getting away from Lidge unscathed. Man. Tough break.
The radio crew sounded so damn excited when Pedro Feliz tied the game up in the bottom of the bottom of the eighth. The atmosphere in Citizens Bank Park was electric. It really seemed like the Phillies could actually pull this one out. It just wasn’t meant to be. But hey, it’s not like there were any other bullpen options available. Brad Lidge is your CLOSER! Even though this season he has been the worst relief pitcher in the history of baseball, you have to admire Cholly for his big, brass cojones. Anyone who could watch Brad Lidge pitch during the regular season and then put him out there in the World Series is either a mad genius or a massive idiot. I’ll let you figure out which one he is.
After Lidge’s meltdown, the wonderful Citizens Bank Park was silenced. You could hear the dejection and disappointment in the voices of the radio announcers as they called Mariano’s perfect 9th. It must be bizarre to watch a closer who can actually end baseball games, huh? It’s been a while since you’ve seen one of those. Any pride about the team was lost. A pin could drop in CBP and you could hear it. It was absolutely phantastic. The cockiness and arrogance of the players and fans were gone.
Jimmy Rollins was quoted that at Yankees Stadium he expected “some of that [Philadelphia rowdiness] here, but it was very tame and civilized, really.” He said that Yankees fans only cheered when there were home runs and that when the games went to Philly the atmosphere would be different. I don’t know Jimmy, CBP didn’t seem to be that rowdy when Lidge personally ended your season.
So Philadelphia, don’t fret any longer. Pop in your old copy Rocky I (the one where he lost at the end) and relax.
Wait, did you feel that? I think it was the breeze of Ryan Howard striking out again.
With much love and admiration,
New York
by Andrew Tworischuk on October 26, 2009
Since the beginning of time, man has prophesied about the end of the world. According to many, it has always been right around the corner. Movies have showed the destruction of modern civilization, most recently in the film 2012. Anyone remember the Y2K panic? "Repent!" they say and your soul will be saved. Nostradamus predicted it, the Bible talks about it, that weird guy down the street who carries that sign about who God hates yells at you about it. For some reason, through recorded history, there has always been a moderate preoccupation with end times.
To the Mets fan, a Phillies versus Yankees World Series is the beginning of end times. At least it feels that way.
I joked around this season with my friends about the worst case scenario for the Mets after this season fell apart. "The only way it could get any worse," I said, "would be if the Phillies and Yankees met in the World Series." They would ask me who I would root for in that situation and I would reply, "A natural disaster." I figured it would never happen in a million years. Sure, they were both in the playoffs and both played great baseball during the regular season but the Yankees have been mediocre at best in the post season in recent years (chalk me up as another victim of sample size) and the Phillies bullpen has had too many question marks to be successful this season.
12:01 am. October 26, 2009. The end of the world. It has arrived. Mariano strikes out Gary Matthews Jr. The Yankees are going to the World Series to meet the Philadelphia Phillies. Mets fans, if you were on the ledge before, now is the time to jump. Now, I may be overreacting a little bit. Remember 1999? That was heartbreaking. The difference between 1999 and 2009 is that the Mets weren't there. They were a non-factor for almost the entire season. This isn't so much heartbreaking as just absolutely demoralizing. Watching these two teams compete for a championship is just demoralizing.
2009 has been like Kubler-Ross' Five Stages of Death and Dying. In the beginning, there was much denial. "It's okay that injuries have ravished the team, we're still in the race! Reyes and Beltran will return soon! Everything will fall into place." Then after they didn't come back, denial was replaced by anger. "[expletive] the Mets." I would hear. "That idiot Minaya ruined the team." Then bargaining. "Please God, let the Mets come back this season. I don't think I can stand another Philadelphia world championship. Please?" When that failed, we went to depression. "What's the point in rooting for this team anymore? They're terrible, they'll never amount to anything. Why go on?"
Now, we're on to acceptance. It's out of our hands now. One of the two most reviled franchises for the Mets are guaranteed to win a championship. It's either the Yankees, who the Mets have been eclipsed and demolished by more times more times than I can count, culminating in K-Rod walking Mariano Rivera and Luis Castillo being unable to make a routine catch. Or, you have the Phillies, the "World f-ing Champions," the team that has mocked us in the media and embarrassed us in recent years.
So as a Mets fan, who do we root for? I'd hope that people are "baseball fans" rather than strictly "Mets fans" because I honestly believe that this is going to be an extremely exciting and close series. My tongue might turn black and fall off for saying this, but I am giving my full support to the City of Brotherly love. Before you exit out of this page, just hear me out. The Yankees have always been the hated franchise for the Mets fan. They tore our hearts out in 2000. They were successful when we failed. They've dominated us in interleague. Forever we will live in the shadow of our bigger, more talented brother. It's impossible to root for the Yankees.
For the Phillies, it's a little easier pill to swallow. The Phillies have not always been a rival of the Mets. Only in recent years has the rivalry heated up to the point where it is today. Remember, our rival previously was the Braves -- not the Phillies. Perhaps it was because when one team was good the other was terrible. For whatever reason, there is not enough innate hatred for the Phillies to not root for them in this situation. Do you really want a 27th ring to kiss?
I like the Phillies. I really do. I know that's blasphemous to say but they have the kind of swagger and talent that I wish the Mets had. For that reason alone, I find it much easier to root for the Phillies because I honestly believe that they are the better baseball team.
More importantly, do we really want A-Rod to get a ring?
by Andrew Tworischuk on October 15, 2009
Since the Wilpons have announced that they are willing to open the coffers and spend money this offseason in order to produce a winning team, everyone will be talking about the two major outfield names on the open market: Matt Holliday and Jason Bay. There’s very little argument that both would obviously be a vast improvement over the likes of Angel Pagan, Jeremy Reed, or Fernando Tatis. This opportunity to upgrade comes with a massive caveat: how much are these players really going to be worth in the open market? Sure, last season showed that great players could still be signed for relatively cheap contracts for a short period of time but what about for guys like Bay and Holliday, both arguably can’t miss talent?
Jason Bay has increased his power numbers since 2007, which was his lowest full season home run total at 21. Incidentally, 2007 was also a season in which he played through a knee injury. He struggled with home runs in Boston at first (only 9 home runs as a Red Sock in 2008, 6 of which came on the road) but his adjustment to hit over the Green Monster has helped him recover his power and he hit 36 this season. He hits for good power and gets on base a ton (.384). He creates runs (112.5 wRC this season), and has shown that he is a great talent (3.4 Wins Above Replacement).
Matt Holliday has been an offensive powerhouse since he broke into the league in 2004. In his first season since leaving Coors Field he has put up an impressive .909 OPS, only slightly down from his previous year. He creates more run than Bay (wRC 114.2), and has a higher OBP. He’s a decent defender (despite what the NLDS showed), with a UZR/150 in left of 3.2. His WAR is greater because of this, putting him at an astonishing 5.6, cementing him firmly as a top 15 player. This is not a person you can just dismiss.
The problem is money and years. Bay is 32, Holliday 30. Bay will command at least a 3 year deal, Holliday 4. Odds are that both will look for $100 million plus contracts. For both of them the cost is absolutely worthwhile but it is something to seriously consider. $100 million to spend on one player is a lot when you have so many unaddressed holes on a team. The Mets have a lot of those. I’m not saying that adding Bay or Holliday won’t vastly improve the team – they both absolutely would. The problem is that when your team is suffering on multiple levels there’s other ways the money could be spent to address those issues without only improving one aspect of the team. That’s the kind of thinking that got the Mets stuck in the Francisco Rodriguez/JJ Putz debacle.
Furthermore, it’s not like Bay and Holliday are slam-dunks to continue performing. Bay’s batting average dropped almost 20 points and while his home run total increased he was batting in the 8
th most pitcher friendly park in baseball according to park factor (for comparison, CitiField was 22
nd). His BABIP dropped 10 points, which could help explain this. His defense is also suspect, at a -8.7 UZR/150 for the 2009 season. Fenway isn’t exactly an easy place to play left field but neither is Citi. Considering his age, his range will only decrease from here. As a team decried due to poor defense, Bay would do very little to improve that.
Holliday is a little different. His defense is very good. The problem is that Holliday struggled offensively early on when he was on the A’s. Although he eventually put up a very good line with them (.286/.378/.831), he still struggled in a less pitcher friendly park than Coors. Ironically enough, Holliday thrived in Busch Stadium, a more pitcher friendly park than Citi. Two reasons for that improvement: one, poor National League pitching talent and two, more opportunities to hit considering he was batting behind Albert Pujols. His BABIP was also extremely high (.346). Considering he’s has a lifetime BABIP of .354, he’s a real candidate for recession.
I would love to have either Holliday or Bay on this team (probably Holliday more due to his better defense). The team has many more issues to address than just them, however. If the Wilpons are willing to spend the money then I hope that one of them wears a Mets uniform next season. Be prepared for other teams to increase the bidding price due to the lack of free agent talent this season. Just don’t expect either to be the savior of the 2010 season unless other team issues are addressed. Both will add wins to the bottom line; not enough yet to push this team into the playoffs.
by Andrew Tworischuk on October 6, 2009
Acquired from the Atlanta
Braves for Ryan Church a while back, Jeff Francoeur has thrown together an
interesting little season for himself. He hit his 15th home run of the season
last night against the Astros and has done a decent job for the Mets, hitting
.313/.340/.504, trailing only Carlos Beltran in OPS. Overall, at first glance,
it appears that Francoeur may have finally put everything back together after
getting run out of Atlanta. The change of scenery may have given
Francoeur to opportunity to succeed with the pressure off. The front office
agrees with that assessment, considering a multi-year extension for him. The
statistics appear to be good enough. Hell, even Omar Minaya said in a
recent interview on WFAN that, "you have to like how Francoeur plays the game."
Doesn't that mean something?
A multi-year extension for
Francoeur would be another gigantic contract misstep on a team known for
handing out horrible contracts. How quickly are we fooled by Jeff Francoeur's
tools? Yes, Francoeur is only 25 and has shown flashes of brilliance over his
career. But he has never progressed further than a guy with a good outfield
arm. Frenchie's defense is lauded yet his UZR/150 is -4.5 between the Mets and
Braves this season (-9.7 for the Mets alone). This is a player who is praised
for getting hits, yet said in an interview that if on-base percentage is so
important "why don't they put it on the scoreboard?" (which they
actually do). This fundamental flaw in hitting philosophy really damages his
ability as a player, lowers his ceiling, and costs the team runs. If you look
at it this way, over the past two seasons, Francoeur has overall been a below
replacement level player.
But you say "Look at his
statistics! Aren't you obsessed with those? Outside of the fact that he still
can't walk, how can you nitpick a season where the player in question has a
.836 OPS over his time with the Mets? What about his wOBA, which isn't really
all that terrible? Sure his UZR/150 has suffered but all of his offensive stats
have improved since he was traded by the Braves. That's got to mean something,
right?
We're going to go back in time. Back to a time when Mets
fans thought their new general manager wasn't incompetent. It was an exciting
time, when Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran were being introduced to Shea
faithful. The year is 2005, Jeff Francoeur's first year in the majors. Here's
his statistics for that season:
70 games. 14
HR. .300/.336/.549, an OPS of .884. BABIP, an inflated .341. wRC of 43. 58
strike outs.
Here's his statistics for the Mets this season:
75 games. 10 HR. .311/.338/.498. OPS of .836. BABIP is .343.
wRC of 42.4. 46 strikeouts.
No tangible improvement from his rookie season and this
season with the Mets. He's right back to where he's started. Yes, he played
this season with a torn ligament in his thumb and that's admirable. Who knows
what kind of production he will put up next season? His 2006 was his breakout
year with 29 HR, but even then his OPS was only .742 due to the fact that his
OBP was less than .300. It's hard to get excited about a player like this,
especially when upper management is considering a multi-year deal.
Contracts are not supposed to reward players for previous
seasons. They are supposed to entice future performance. There is no indication
at this point that Francoeur will ever become the elite player he should have
been. Francoeur is the definition of a very raw player. He has all the talent
in the world but he's yet to put it all together. He'll be 26 next season,
entering hopefully the prime of his career. Is anyone knocking on the Mets door
or crying for Francoeur's talents? The Braves couldn't give him away until the
Mets offered Ryan Church.
I'm not saying the Church/Francoeur swap wasn't a good one.
It was a lateral move that improved both teams. Addition through subtraction. To
consider an extension for Francoeur when he's still a rough player is an
absolute mistake. He's still under arbitration. Why even bother wasting guaranteed
money on a player who may or may not fall apart within the next year? It's not even like his season with the Mets has been all that fantastic either (0.3 WAR). Francoeur's previous seasons have all been so random that there's almost no way to figure out where
he'll be month-to-month, let alone season-to-season. The Wilpons might as well just burn money.
by Andrew Tworischuk on September 28, 2009
Milton Bradley's "reign of terror" in Chicago has ended. At long last, the nightmare on the North Side has resulted in the indefinite suspension of the struggling outfielder and his ticket out of the Windy City. The Mets are in need of an outfield bat. Bradley will absolutely be available this off season, either through trade or if the Cubs just eat his money and release him. He's hitting .257/.378/.397 which although not great, his OBP shows patience. Furthermore, he's only one year removed from his .999 OPS season in Texas. After dealing with the Chicago press he'd be groomed perfectly for New York. Wouldn't he be a decent buy low acquisition for next season?
Even without considering his "character issues" (the apparent buzz word for "doesn't get along with the fans or press"), Bradley would be a huge disappointment in New York. Normally, I would be praising the sabermetric value of a high OBP but in this situation it inflates his real overall value and hides that this 31 year old has reached his peak. His OBP this season, an admittedly respectful .378, is marred by a wOBA (weighted on-base percentage), 33 points lower than his OBP. He's been getting lucky. His BB/K ratio is career average, yet his power numbers are way down, a drop of greater than 200 points of OPS below last season.
When analyzing Bradley's phenomenal 2008 season with Texas, one must look at the peripheral statistics to understand why this happened and whether or not Bradley could repeat his performance. If we had a time machine and could see that he, despite all odds, repeated his 2008 form, then Bradley would be a no-brainer signing. Remember, he hit .327/.436/.563 with the Rangers. If the Mets could keep Gary Sheffield's monstrous ego in check, Bradley would be fine. However, the odds of him repeating another magical season are almost nil. Bradley's BABIP in 2008 was an astonishing .396, higher than Ichiro Suzuki, the king of BABIP. The reason why Ichiro's BABIP is okay is because he gets on base using his speed and small contact instead of walks. As soon as he stops doing that, his production will go down sizably. There's almost zero chance that a normal player, swinging for power like Bradley instead of strictly contact would be able to keep a sustained BABIP like that for an entire season.
Bradley also has a severe injury history. He has not played more than 130 games in a season since 2004 with the Dodgers. He missed plenty of time this season due to injury. Considering the injuries that demolished this season, why would the Mets go after another player who cannot stay healthy. Didn't the front office learn anything from the Moises Alou disaster? Even if he avoided day to day injuries, his ACL tear in 2007 has made it almost impossible for him to play the outfield well. He has posted a negative UZR/150 this season. If he was hitting better it could be overlooked but it's not like he's producing like Adam Dunn.
Bradley may be a good pickup for a team in the American League. If his success as a DH in Texas proved anything it's that he can still be a valuable player under the right circumstances. The Mets should be focusing on trying to acquire a pitcher, not a grouchy outfielder who can barely play the field.
by Andrew Tworischuk on September 18, 2009
The Mets have been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. It's finally over. The most disappointing season in recent memory will very soon be an afterthought in our hearts and minds. The healing can begin soon. Winter will come and the snow will fall, chilling us to the bone and numbing us of the pain of Luis Castillo's dropped fly ball against the Yankees. Soothing hot chocolate (with the little marshmallows of course) will make it easier to forget Daniel Murphy's defensive blunders. Delicious and copious amounts of egg nog will free our minds and allow us to let go of this lost season. In the spring, new life will resurrect the barren and dead landscape.
Pitchers and catchers report in around 150 days. It cannot come soon enough.
Forget about what's going on right now in the baseball world. It's unimportant to us. There's only one October but I'll be looking forward to wearing costumes and eating candy rather than post season baseball. Mr. November may win his 5th ring but all that's on my mind is Thanksgiving turkey. There's no story lines to look forward to. We don't even have an epic collapse to look forward to -- the team took care of that in July. Delgado and Reyes won't be back this season so there's nothing really to look forward to there. For all I care, the baseball season ended when Pedro Martinez ripped out our throats last Sunday at Citizens Bank Park.
So what is there to talk about or be excited about in the world of orange and blue? What's the point in writing another stomach churning and blood pressure raising article about how the team's wOBA is too low or that half the team is below replacement level? Or another article about how absolutely incompetent Jerry Manuel is or the embarrassing village idiot status that Omar Minaya has created for himself?
It's all too cliche. Too depressing. Too negative.
I've been on a real 90s kick recently. I've been thinking back to those days a lot, back when I was a kid and all of baseball was new to me. I still remember my first game at Shea when I was 5 years old. I fell in love with the game and its players. I marveled at the finesse that these players showed on the field. While I knew in my heart of hearts that the home team I was watching wasn't very good (in fact they were terrible) I still loved them for the lovable losers that they were. When I watch this team, I get the same feeling I did as a child watching Bernard Gilkey, Tim Bogar, Generation K, or any other number of horrible to mediocre players that took the field during those years.
"Down in a hole and I don't know if I can be saved," Layne Staley sang on Alice in Chains' second studio album Dirt way back in 1992. Despite the nostalgic feelings I get watching my favorite motley crew lose, I honestly wonder to myself if the Mets can be saved. There's been no indication that there is any competence in the front office. Their antiquated thinking, such as refusing to draft any players who possess a social networking site account such as a facebook page or twitter account, has severely crippled this franchise. It's indicative of an extremely low level of thinking. Having a manager that doesn't believe in statistics or a general manager who thinks that having two closers is the greatest thing since a college freshman discovering Ayn Rand for the first time has absolutely demolished any chance that this team will get out of that hole.
It's been 15 years since Kurt Cobain committed suicide yet the Mets are worse off now in 2009 than they were then back in 1994. There seems to be no focus to their team design, throwing a mishmash of high OBP guys (like Wright, Reyes, Beltran, and this season at least Castillo) with other people who literally cannot take a walk (Tatis, Murphy, and worst of all Francoeur who once said that if OBP was so important "why don't they put it on the scoreboard?" Which, actually, they do). Your pitching staff includes Johan Santana (well, not anymore at least not this season) and a bunch of life sized cardboard cutouts of Tom Seaver.
"Hey! Wait! I got a new complaint." The farm system is completely barren. Outside of a handful of prospects who don't project all that high, the system actually can barely support itself. In fact, they had to wait until the minor league season was over before they could bring up Josh Thole because, get this, the didn't have enough players. If your infrastructure is that damaged there's something seriously fundamentally wrong with the team's philosophy and design. This past offseason was the time to strike with players like Bobby Abreu and Adam Dunn available for extremely cheap. If you don't believe that Dunn's high wOBA and 40 homers or Abreu's ability to get on base wouldn't have helped this team immensely and for cheap you're simply diluting yourself. The team could have signed both of them for less than Oliver Perez's horrible contract. But I guess the fact that Dunn strikes out too much or plays terrible defense or "doesn't care about the game" makes brains completely shut down even though we have that same player in Jeff Francoeur. You know, minus the ability to get on base or hit for power.
I'm anxiously waiting for the offseason. I want to see what direction this team is going to go in. While the free agent market may be barren there are a couple of intriguing names that could have an immediate impact. I'm excited to see how the Mets are going to draft considering they have a top 6 draft pick wrapped up. Maybe the team will spend their money wisely, make some intelligent personnel moves, draft over slot, and perhaps even contend next season with Beltran, Reyes, and Santana all healthy.
"It's fun to lose and to pretend."
by Andrew Tworischuk on September 10, 2009
Carl Crawford's name has been thrown around lately for being a potential option for the Metropolitians in left field. He is an excellent defender (13.2 UZR/150 in LF), a good hitter (.813 OPS), and is very fast (56 stolen bases this season). He would definitely have a sizable impact on the Mets considering his Wins Above Replacement is 5.0 and creates 90 or more runs a season. He is exactly the kind of player the Mets need to add to their team.
Prince Fielder is another popular name. There have been reports that he is unhappy with his contract situation in Milwaukee even though he just signed a 2 year/$18 million contract. His impact on the Mets would be even more substantial than Crawford's. A huge power hitter with a good petigree, Fielder is an absolute monster at the plate. His OPS is over 1.000 and has a higher WAR than Crawford even though his defense is lacking (-0.9 UZR/150). He would be the savior to the Mets 1B hitting woes and would be a shot in the arm for their stagnant offense.
There's only one problem: the Mets cannot and will not acquire Carl Crawford or Prince Fielder. It's never, ever happening barring bizarre circumstances.
Let's look at the situation. The Rays recently traded Scott Kazmir to the Angels in a salary dump. Rays GM Andrew Friedman confirmed that, saying that while saving money was not the "primary motivating factor" he did admit that the trade was party because of money. According to an article in the St. Petersburg Times, Friedman said, "This is what we do and have to do to balance the now and the future." It is not a impossibility that the trade occured to save money to resign Crawford.
Nonetheless, Crawford may end up being traded in the future. He has a $8.25 million option this season with a $2.5 million buyout. In 2010, the option becomes 10 million. The Rays are notorious penny pinchers. They may figure that Crawford no longer fits into their future plans.
Even if that does end up happening, don't assume that the Mets are going to acquire him. The Rays would have to be absolutely brain dead to just let him walk. More importantly, the Mets simply do not have the prospects to land Crawford or Fielder through trade, assuming the Rays pick up his option. The Mets just don't have the pieces to give these teams to make a trade worthwhile. It's fun to talk about potential players being on the team but to believe for one minute that either of these superstars could ever be acquired is flat out fantasy.
Who do the Mets trade to get Crawford or Fielder? Here's some popular names and why they wouldn't work:
Trading Jose Reyes could potentially be one of the biggest mistakes in baseball history. You simply do not trade a superstar shortstop in his prime, especially when his value is lower due to injury. It just doesn't make sense. From 06-08 his wRC was more than 100. His BABIP is not inflated so essentially his batting average is right on line. His OPS in 06 and 08 were both over .800. His WAR has consistently been over 5 (bordering on 6 in 08). This is not a player you trade. In fact, according to his career WAR arguably he's actually more valuable than both Crawford and Fielder. Yes, Sabermetrics don't tell the full story about his rumored laziness or other important "intangibles" he may or may not be lacking but to be honest disputing statistics and relying on anecdotal evidence to tell a story about a player leads to things like trading Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano.
Fernando Martinez has been just about untouchable since he joined the Mets organization back in 2005. He has been groomed to be the future of the franchise and to give up on him now when his stock is the lowest (just like Reyes) is absurd. If he wasn't included in the Johan Santana trade he's definitely not going to packaged for Crawford or Fielder.
Jon Niese is coming off a substantial leg injury (complete tear of the hamstring). He also has a 3.23 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, a stat that helps understand how well a pitcher did regardless of how good the defense is behind him) which is very good. There is no reason to trade him. The Mets need quality pitchers next season, a hole that Niese could fill if he is healthy. Second, there's zero trade value in an injured prospect.
Brad Holt and Jenrry Mejia were both on John Sickel's top 10 Mets prospects list. Holt, 22, had a miserable 5.01 FIP in AA. His trade value has plummeted as well as his K/9 and HR numbers. Mejia turns 20 in one month and is very rough around the edges. His FIP is lower than his ERA (a product of poor minor league defense rather than pitching) and his strike outs are up but his walks are extremely high. Both Holt and Mejia may one day become good prospects but right now they are not the kind of players who can be traded for superstars.
Perhaps most important of all, teams know that the Mets are crippled and are desperate for players like Crawford or Fielder. They're going to ask for the moon and the Mets cannot supply it without further damaging the infrastructure of the franchise. Fans need to be realistic about the team the Mets are. The minor league system is mediocre at best and no major league GM is knocking down the door to trade top talent for the Mets' prospects.
While it's a nice thought to imagine Crawford leading off or Fielder batting cleanup behind Beltran and in front of Wright, it would take an epic Faustian bargain to pull it off.
by Andrew Tworischuk on September 2, 2009
One of the perils of being born and raised a Mets fan and going to college an hour away from Philadelphia is that I am perpetually in enemy territory. Unable to watch SNY due to being out of the market, yet close enough to New York City to be under the influence of blackout restrictions, my baseball watching on television is limited to the Philadelphia Phillies, New York Yankees, and Pittsburgh Pirates. My live baseball option is one: the Yankees AAA affiliate. I have been heckled more times than I can count just for wearing a Mets hat to class or to the bar. My friends, while all otherwise decent people and upstanding citizens, are all either completely uninterested in baseball or tragically Phillies fans. I have no way to vent my sports related frustrations without receiving either dead, blank stares or hyena-esque laughter.
Baseball is clearly something that is very important to me. My first memory as a child is attending a Braves/Mets game at Shea Stadium in the early 90s. I have taken the ride on the emotional roller coaster of the Mets and I am yet to get off. I love my team even when I disagree with personnel decisions or when half the team is in the ICU in critical condition. This season has reinforced that it's tough enough to be a Mets fan and that there is very little reason to complicate my sports life further.
I have a confession to make. I have complicated that life. Every girl I have been involved with over the past four years here have all been Phillies fans. Forgive me father, for I have sinned against my baseball team.
It's like a moth to a flame. I am irresistibly attracted to girls who love the Phillies.
Perhaps the most embarrassing thing to ever happen to me was down at a New Jersey shore boardwalk frequented by the denizens of Philadelphia with my girlfriend. There was a crane game where I had the chance to potentially win a David Wright jersey. I put my first dollar in not really expecting anything. I moved the crane around carefully and pressed the button. Down the crane went. YES! It picked up a jersey box! I won! The little box fell into my awaiting hands. I opened it carefully, fitting myself in my mind for a brand new number 5 jersey.
"Congratulations!" a small sheet of paper inside said. "You have won: CHASE UTLEY JERSEY." My head drooped. I heard snickering behind me. I turned around -- it was my girlfriend, the Phillies fan. At least it could go to good use.
I am not a traitor. There is something innately attractive about the City of Brotherly Love. Yes, they booed Santa Claus, had a drunk tank built into their run down multipurpose sports stadium, a reputation for fans being unruly and classless, as well as a city hero athlete of dubious mental capacity who doesn't even exist. For some reason, the entire package when you look at it is actually endearing. Sure, hearing people continually bring up the 2007 and 2008 collapse more than their own World Series victory may be tiring and listening to someone mockingly sing "Meet the Mets" completely off key might lead to headaches but for some reason I cannot get enough of Philadelphia and its most interesting people.
There's a certain blue-collar toughness that they possess, coupled with an attitude that screams confidence yet apprehension at the same time. There is a duality to being from Philadelphia -- always hoping for the best yet preparing for the worst at all times, much like a certain New York baseball franchise. It seems like despite their recent success, the Philadelphia fanatics are continuously looking over the shoulder at all times, almost as if they are trying to escape from someone else's shadow.
Opposites attract. New York and Philadelphia at this point are like oil and water. We just don't mix. I'm used to it now. I know I can't talk about my displeasure with my team. There will be no sympathy for poor play. I will never hear the end about 2007. I know that I have to put up with listening about how dreamy Chase Utley is. I don't mind. I've found the humor in it. Perhaps more importantly, maybe this unholy union shows that love truly does conquer all, from life through baseball.
God help me if there's a Phillies/Mets NLCS, though. I'm not sure anything will survive that.
by Andrew Tworischuk on August 26, 2009
It seems like every year there are a couple of home grown, mostly unknown, young minor leaguers who come up through the system and have success in the Major Leagues, at least for a little while. The newspapers and fans traditionally laud the success of these players because of their heart, scrap, and grittiness -- the holy trinity of intangibles (In the name of the Jeter, and the Eckstein, and the Pedroia Amen. Let us play). Every once in a while these players are actually good players and they have continued success and they blossom into excellent ballplayers. Other players are small sample size wonders who get abused and beaten once legitimate pitchers figure out their weaknesses. These players rarely recover and become utilitymen, career minor leaguers, or they are out of baseball entirely.
After watching the 2009 season it appears that Daniel Murphy is a member of the second, much less illustrious club.
Drafted in the 13th round from Jacksonville University in 2006, Murphy was brought up to the major leagues in 2008 after Marlon Anderson was put on the disabled list. He then went on an absolute tear, batting .313/.397 with an OPS of .871, an impressive little 131 at bat season. The New York sports radio was abuzz with the sounds of excited Mets fans. Murphy was praised for his gritty play, his intangibles. He drew comparisons to Don Mattingly and other great players. For all intents and purposes Daniel Murphy was someone to be excited about.
During Spring Training, it looked like his success would carry into this season. Murphy worked on his hitting with 3rd base coach Razor Shines, spending hours hitting balls. Reports were stated that he looked great hitting, making good contact and driving the ball. Comparisons once again flew in, this time saying that he looked like the best home grown hitter since David Wright. Could this be true? Could the 13th round pick from a tiny Division I school really become something great?
The answer quite simply is no. Murphy has completely fallen off the map this season. He has had almost triple the at-bats compared to last season and his batting average and OPS have both significantly dropped (batting average dropped nearly 60 points while his OPS has dived 171 points south). This is a much more significant sample compared to what the Mets saw last season and more accurately reflects the production that Murphy is capable of.
Murphy's platoon splits are off the chart. Against right handed batters, Murphy is merely okay this season with .263/.324/.387 (compared to last season: .306/.391/.455). Murphy is completely lost against left handed pitching, only hitting .233/.269/.384. While his slugging is the same, he cannot hit nor walk against left handed pitchers. His offensive production is actually hurting the team, since both his WAR (wins above replacement, a statistic that measures how many wins better a player is compared to a replacement, league average player) and RAR (runs above replacement, the amount of runs Murphy will score more than a replacement player) are both in the negative. His poor hitting is actually costing the Mets runs.
So why did Daniel Murphy fall off a cliff so quickly? He looked so promising last season and now statistically obsessed bloggers are writing about how useless he is. What caused this change?
The secret to Daniel Murphy's great 2008 season was his inflated BABIP. His BABIP in 2008 was .386 almost one hundred points above average. He was, plain and simple, insanely lucky at the plate. Once his sample size increased and his BABIP normalized (at .285 this season) he fell back down to earth. Also, he is hitting more fly balls than last season and his line drive percentage is down. Line drives have a higher chance of falling in for hits rather than pop flies so that could explain why his BABIP has normalized. In fact after analyzing his peripheral statistics, this season mirrors last season. His K/BB ratio is almost exactly the same and his contact percentages are only off a little bit from last season. Luck had almost everything to do with last season's success.
The honeymoon with Murphy should be over. This is who Daniel Murphy is: a decent defensive 1B (UZR 150: 2.0) who can't get on base against southpaws, is merely okay against righties, hits for almost no power, and most importantly isn't using his strength of hitting line drives. Perhaps Daniel Murphy could have success as an off the bench guy or a utility infielder but he should not factor into any plans for the future at first base unless he can figure out his hitting again.
While it's disappointing to realize that Murphy isn't Don Mattingly, his story might become even better if he can somehow improbably put it all back together again and have success in the future. At this point, however, it doesn't look like that's going to happen.
